The anchor of KTLA5 announced on November 6, at 8:33 AM local time, "Mr. Trump made history tonight. He will be the first convicted felon to become president of the United States."
We Europeans are stunned, some are shocked, and Germany is doubly so. No sooner
had we realized that Trump had won the election than our coalition government
collapsed. But that is a different story.
Back to America. So why this victory? Again, it's the economy, stupid. Many
voters' economic situation and concerns about the financial future tipped the
scales. It was high inflation, especially in the year before last, an increase
in the price of services, and a rise in rent, especially in medium-sized and
large cities.
What about "democracy, constitutional rights, and
bedrock freedoms," Kamala Harris had written on her banner? "Abstract truths
mattered less, voters said, than tangible issues."
This Brechtian "First comes the food and then the morals (Erst kommt das
Fressen und dann die Moral)" weighed heavier than Trump's lies, his contempt
for women, his venom, and his agitation against political opponents. Voters
set aside Trump's mental confusion, his threats to take revenge on political
opponents, to tailor democratic institutions to his authoritarian ideas, or to
deport migrants.
Last night's Stammtisch of the
Freiburg-Madison-Gesellschaft was dedicated to the outcome of the US election.
Due to the highly topical subject, it was well attended. In particular, many
AYF students found their way to the Greiffenegg-Schlössle.
|
On the right, Dietmar Ostermann is highly concentrated while FMG
President Toni Schlegel listens attentively
|
Dietmar Ostermann, political editor of the local Badische Zeitung and
long-time USA correspondent for German-language newspapers, gave a keynote
speech followed by a discussion.
He began with a factual
introduction that avoided speculating about the consequences of Trump's
victory. At the moment, we can only guess what the new administration
will bring us. Unlike the first Trump administration, a team of loyal vassals
is ready to take up key positions in the new government.
This is
my blog, so I will offer some of my own thoughts here, however exaggerated or
wrong they may be.
While the discussion at the
Greiffenegg-Schlössle initially centered on missing American military aid for
Ukraine, but Trump promised the end of the Ukraine war within 48 hours, I
moved the discussion to a topic that could shake the world.
With
his motto, "America first," Trump has ushered in Monroe Doctrine 2.0,
something that had already been foreshadowed under previous administrations
and culminated in the dramatic withdrawal from Afghanistan: The USA is
abandoning its role as the world's sheriff.
This means that more
small warlords might raise their heads in the future, as is already happening
in South Sudan, with cruel consequences for the civilian population being
crushed between the fronts.
Existing conflicts, such as in the
Middle East, continue unabated. The state of Israel is waging a bloody
struggle for its existence and is not bothered by either US or international
efforts to achieve a ceasefire.
A recession threatens the global
economy. Isolating America by introducing tariffs (Trump's favorite word) will
make importing foreign products into the USA more difficult.
This
means that export-oriented countries such as China and Germany will find it
more difficult to export to the USA and, subsequently, will produce fewer
goods. This will exacerbate the existing economic recession in both countries.
Following the possible closure of Volkswagen plants in Germany,
social unrest will probably be limited. Still, it is feared that radical
parties on the right and left will gain ground, which could lead to the
centrist democratic parties no longer having a majority for forming
governments. These "Weimar conditions" are currently observed in the federal
state of Saxony.
We can only speculate whether there will be social unrest in China,
mainly due to rising youth unemployment.
Trump's knowledge
of economics is at least as modest as mine. When imported products become more
expensive due to high import tariffs, he will be unable to keep his promise
to lower prices in the USA. On the contrary, inflation will be fueled, and the
American people as a whole will not be better off than now.
Nowadays, the promise of better living conditions for one part of the world
can only be fulfilled at the expense of others, as economic growth is ruled
out due to the suffering environment. Trade wars are inevitable.
Afterthoughts
On
last night's Late Show, Stephen Colbert began his analysis of the election
result with the word shit. He was not at all happy about the prospect of
having plenty of material for his political jokes over the next four years.
Instead, he ended his monologue by introducing his pessimistic sticker:
The Democrats lost, but on the positive side, Trump's election is a victory
for democracy. He won not only the majority of electoral votes but also the
majority of popular votes. Therefore, on January 20, 2025, we will see a
peaceful transfer of power, not a new Storm on the Capitol.
*