It’s All Exponential

Prof. Emanuel Deutschmann had made the long journey from Flensburg to Freiburg to present and sell his book "Die Exponential Gesellschaft, Vom Ende des Wachstums zur Stabilisierung der Welt" (The Exponential Society: From the End of Growth to the Stabilization of the World).

One of humanity's most significant weaknesses is its inability to understand exponential functions (Al Bartlett, 1976).

It is undoubtedly the most important function in mathematics (Walter Rudin, 1970).

Has its relevance in sociology been underestimated until now?

The lecture hall was well-filled. Prof. Deutschmann had divided his talk into three theses.

1. Today's society is characterized by exaggerated exponential trends that cause fundamental problems. 

2. These problems make stabilization a central issue of social order.

3. This constellation gives rise to new social conflicts.

In a double logarithmic scale, exponential functions are presented by a straight line.

Indeed, the economy and global production have grown exponentially with the industrial age. 

As early as 1848, Marx and Engels warned of "a continuous revolution in production, which will cause an uninterrupted upheaval of all social conditions."

 Here are some graphs:

The money supply in various countries is growing exponentially with a doubling time of 8.5 years.

The consumption of various building materials follows an exponential trend.

An exponential function represents a straight line in double logarithmic representation.

The number of scientific publications and the production of microprocessors increase exponentially over time, whereas AI grows even faster.

World tourism, the number of students studying abroad, and road traffic follow the trend.

Despite many international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, their levels continue to rise. Due to thawing permafrost, methane emissions have increased sharply in recent years.

Here is the verdict. Measured global warming and sea levels continue to rise exponentially.

An ever-rising global population is accelerating climate change.

All curves have a universal mechanism in common: More brings more, or growth is the basis for further growth in a positive feedback loop.

To stabilize the world economy, Justin Connolly "had a dream" of a donut-capped economic limit, i.e., a humanity living in a safe and just space with a regenerative and distributive economy.

In our world, two extreme attitudes clash: further expansion into space as Mother Earth's resources near exhaustion, with the opposing view that there is no planet B.

Prof. Deutschmann was clear: Ad astra expansionism a la Musk is a castle in the air, and metaverse expansionism a la Zuckerberg is a pipe dream.

The balance of power between the two extreme camps is uneven and one-sided.

The stagnant German economy must grow again, while the US breaks every record on GROWTH.

Since long, Red Baron has believed that the global economic pie has reached its maximum size and that growth is only possible when the pie is sliced differently, with one nation's gain being another nation's loss.

Whether a green economy will drive economic growth remains a subject of debate. The Camino Real is the decoupling of resource use from economic activity.

However, here is a caveat: the rebound effect known as the Jevons Paradox. Technological progress that enables more efficient use of a resource ultimately leads to increased use of that resource rather than to its reduction.

Here are Prof Deutschmann's conclusions:

The task: Crafting stabilizing utopias.

The goal: A good life for all within planetary boundaries, what Ernst Bloch called: "Optimism with a black ribbon."

Lagniappe: 

The other night, Red Baron attended the annual meeting of the Association Supporting the Freiburg Documentation Center on National Socialism. The president presented the growth in membership as a bar chart, with an exponential function superimposed. When will all Freiburg citizens be members?

**

Potsdam Again Revisited

My last visit dates back to St. Sylvester 2023, when Red Baron celebrated the transition to the new year in Potsdam.

On the second day of our trip to Berlin, we took the S-Bahn from Berlin Hauptbahnhof (the central station) to Potsdam Hauptbahnhof. We walked across the Havel Bridge to the rebuilt Stadtschloss (City Castle) and the Alter Markt, home to the impressive dome of St. Nicholai church.

The bright yellow, classic-style building was not there during my last visit. It caught our attention. It is a reconstruction of the 1945-destroyed Plögerscher Gasthof, built in 1754 during the time of Frederick the Great.

This reconstructed "inn" has been named Building of the Year 2024 by the association "Stadtbild Deutschland" (Cityscape Germany): The enormous care taken in the detailed work on these facades radiates a high quality that is otherwise unmatched in new buildings.

The Plögersche Gasthof at the corner of Friedrich-Ebert-Straße and Anna-Zielenziger-Straße.
The dome of St. Nikolai Church on the Old Market Square is visible in the background.
©picture alliance/dpa

Wikipedia knows: The figures embody typical hospitable motifs that recall the building's former use as an inn, where people ate, drank, and danced. For example, in addition to a musician with a flute, the goddess of tree fruits, Pomona, and the goddess of agriculture, Ceres, are depicted.

 
We took the tram to Brandenburgerstraße and walked up to the Brandenburg Gate. There are many small shops and cafés.

The outlet of the Royal Porcelain Factory, founded in 1763, caught our attention. Frederick also wanted to earn money with white gold, just like the Saxon and Bavarian kings.

Potsdam's Brandenburg Gate

At the sight of the Brandenburg coat of arms, Red Baron instinctively hummed the state anthem:

Steige hoch, du roter Adler, über Sumpf und Sand Über dunkle Kiefernwälder, heil dir, Mein Brandenburger Land

Soar high, red eagle, over swamp and sand Over dark pine forests, hail to you My Brandenburg Land

On our way to the Sanssouci Park, we passed the Monument of the Three Empresses' Crowns, symbolizing Potsdam's royal identity. The crowns belong to Empress Augusta, wife of Wilhelm I, the first Kaiser of the Second Empire; Victoria, wife of Frederik III, the 99-day Kaiser; and Auguste Viktoria, wife of Wilhelm II, the last German Kaiser.

While approaching the gate to Sanssouci Park, we noticed a lady pulling up in an electric-powered vehicle with benches for disabled visitors.

Passing the Chinese tea pavilion in the mild autumn sun

We travelled with her to the Neues Palais (New Palace), which is now part of the University of Potsdam.

The New Palace without scaffolds (©A.Savin/Wikipedia)

Frederick the Great wanted to show the world that, following the Hubertusburg Peace, a peace of exhaustion, Prussia had still enough money to build a Neues Palais. The building was scaffolded.

Instead, we met roof statues, scrambled in a collection center waiting to be cleaned and restored.

And suddenly, on our way back, we saw Katie, the beautiful hoodie (Corvus cornix), whom I had met before in Potsdam, giving us the cold shoulder.

We arrived at the foot of the Sanssouci hill.

View of the sun-drenched terrace of the famous vineyard and the historic mill of Sanssouci.

We made our way through the park and admired the Prussian accuracy.

Katie had followed us and found a pleasant place to rest.

 

Frederick's grave marker with the obligatory potatoes.

The sun symbol above an entrance to the courtyard of the Sanssouci Palace. The Prussian Elector Friedrich Wilhelm featured the sun on his flag eagle and defiantly claimed "Non soli cedit," meaning he would not yield to the Roi soleil, Louis XIV, whose sun shone everywhere (Fulget ubique).

Promptly, in 1675, the Great Elector suffered a bitter defeat against the Sun King in distant Alsace in the Battle of Türkheim.

We bought tickets to the Sanssouci Palace at the Foundation of Prussian Palaces and Gardens.

There he was, the flute player of Sanssouci. An epigone of the artistic Frederick the Great, of whom his father, who wanted to make his young son a Prussian soldier, said: "Fritz is a Querpfeiffer* and a poet. He doesn't care about soldiers and will ruin all my work. I would like to know what goes on in that little head of his. I know that he doesn't think like me." 

*A traverse flute player, but it could also mean a rebel

A guest room with a sleeping alcove

The interior of the Sanssouci Palace is filled with oil paintings, but they are so far from visitors that it is impossible to make out their motifs.

  

 

 This painting was an exception and depicts King Frederick and his architect, Georg Wenzeslaus von Knobelsdorff, inspecting construction work.

Here is the exciting line of sight in the middle of the castle from one end to the other.

Since I had it with the birds. Here is a white stork (Ciconia ciconia) from the Chinese-style decorated room at Sanssouci.

The grey heron (Ardea cinerea) is also a native bird.

And here comes the star, the Silberreiher (great egret; Ardea alba),

A final view of the Sanssouci Palace. Because of my interest in other birds, Katie was offended and kept her distance.

On our way out, my brother in the walking stick, the Great Frederick, bade us goodbye.

Although time was running short, we took a quick look at the courtyard of the Peace Church near the entrance to Sanssouci Park.

   

On the civil war in South Sudan

Finally, peace, or just hope?

**

The Baker's Window in Freiburg's Minster Church

In the Middle Ages, the bakers' guild donated some of the most impressive stained glass windows of Freiburg's Minster church. Red Baron showed the Brezel window in an earlier blog.

Last Saturday at the Studium Generale, Junior Professor Julia von Ditfurth presented the whole story behind the Baker's Window. Once again, the lecture hall was overcrowded.

Here is a black and white photo of the Baker's Window in 1917. The individual glass panes tell the hagiography of Saint Catherine of Alexandria.

Here is the Baker's Window as it appears to the visitor today. It is immediately apparent that the Brezel from 1917 has not only slipped down one row, but is also represented thrice.

Baker's Window showing the original panes (white)
and the panes created by Fritz Geiges around 1923.

How did that happen? In 1917, the Münsterbauverein (Cathedral Building Association) commissioned Fritz Geiges, Freiburg's renowned glass painter, to restore the cathedral's windows.

Original pane in the lower left: Before the king, Catherine refuses to worship idols..

Fritz did a thorough job. In restoring the Baker's Window, he removed five poorly preserved original panes and handed them over to the Augustiner Museum.

Catherine refuses to worship idols. Geiges's version of 1923.
People look up at the idol statue while Maxentius admonishes Catherine.

Fritz then replaced the missing panes with two copies of the Brezel and three of his "medieval" creations.

At the Day for Monument Preservation in 1925, Geiges's "restorations" were heavily criticized; some even spoke of "restoration vandalism." However, the Münsterbauverein had formulated the objective for the stained glass windows as "restoration to its original condition," allowing Geiges relatively free rein. In contrast, today's maxim is "Never restore, if possible only conserve."

Professor Ditfurth showed more original panes with Catherine's story. She was a Christian, and when the persecutions began under Emperor Maxentius, she went to him and rebuked him for his cruelty. 

Catherine debates the philosophers.

The Emperor summoned 50 of the best pagan philosophers and orators to debate with her, hoping that Catherine would renounce her Christian faith. However, discussing with them, she converted several to Christianity.

The burning of the philosophers.

The converts were burned alive in an oven.

Maxentius gave orders to subject Catherine to terrible tortures and then throw her in prison.

Empress Fausta and Porphyry visit Catherine in prison.

During her imprisonment, more than 200 people visited her. All were converted to Christianity and subsequently martyred.

Catherine's wheel torture

According to the legend, Maxentius tried to win her over by proposing marriage. When Catherine refused, declaring that her spouse was Jesus Christ, he furious emperor condemned Catherine to be tortured on a wheel studded with sharp knives. But at her touch, it shattered.

 
Eventually, the emperor ordered her to be beheaded.

**