The Social Question

The social question was Karl Marx's primary theme. In his time, there was a proletariat as a result of industrialization. Workers toiled more than 60 hours weekly for low wages in the capitalists' factories. They lived in slums, their children died of tuberculosis, and they could be fired at any time, only to find themselves unemployed and even more destitute.

Those times are over. The dictatorship of the proletariat predicted by Marx never took place because society slowly understood that a worker is not an exploitable commodity but has human dignity. This is why the class question has been depoliticized today but remains economically relevant.

The scissors open: Share of total income in Germany in percent for
the lower 50% (red)  and the top 10% (black) of the population over the years (©ISW)

Because the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen in modern society, new social or economic injustices are emerging, e.g., in the possibility of acquiring residential property. 

In Germany, the housing market has a considerable gap between demand and supply. Prices and mortgage interest rates are soaring, meaning the "rich" naturally have the upper hand.

Last weekend, a new left-wing party was founded in Germany, the BSW, the Sahra Wagenknecht Bewegung (movement).

Sahra Wagenknecht and her husband Oskar Lafontaine (©IMAGO/Chris Emil Janssen)

Sahra left the Die Linke party last year because it did not take modern social issues sufficiently into account in its party program.

How successful will the new party be? Can it overcome the five percent hurdle of the German electoral system?

Let's take a look at the BSW party platform.

The Wagenknecht party could make economic injustice a political issue. Apart from paying lip service to this injustice, no party in Germany is currently doing anything about it.

Although there is a growing awareness that inequality in society is increasing, there is neither a movement for more redistribution nor a comprehensive social protest.

According to some analysts, one of the reasons for this is the belief that in the end, according to a German proverb, Everyone is the architect of his/her own fortune and can make it from dishwasher to millionaire. Although research has largely disproved this belief, even people in Germany who are hardly lucky hold on to it.

People with little money also often believe that they are mainly competing with those who are even worse off than they are. That's why they think bullying the underlings is right instead of clenching their fists at the top.

One percent of Germany's population owns 41.1% of the financial assets.
This is only slightly less than the worldwide average (©T-Online).

As early as 2019, one could read in a study: The unequal distribution of income and wealth across the EU and the relatively high poverty rate, with their consequences for social cohesion, represent a significant potential risk factor for further destabilization of Europe, i.e., of populists getting in power.

Oskar, the three-party man. From Social Democrat (SPD)
via the Linkspartei (Die Linke) to the BSW (his wife's party) (©Kay Nietfeld)

Sahra's husband, Oskar Lafontaine, opened his speech at the BSW founding party conference with the following words: "If politics has a purpose, then it is to improve people's lives."

On the occasion, Sahra spoke more about practical matters such as the minimum wage, pensions, unemployment insurance, and taxes for the rich. She could motivate people with little money or without college degrees to vote for the BSW.

In fact, democracy has a real problem: The fight against growing inequality in society has no lobby. Sahra could put her finger in the wound.

Alongside social matters, peace policy is the second key issue for Wagenknecht's party. Seriously addressing the question of how to proceed in Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza should be of an essential concern for a left-wing party. But Sahra and Oskar did not dare to name perpetrators and victims - and to acknowledge that states are allowed to decide whether they want to continue to exist or not.

What remains in the end? "Politics only makes sense if it improves people's lives."
*

Stellt sich die Systemfrage?

In a series of talks on Democracy as a Test of Courage, last night, Red Baron followed an online discussion on Is the Democratic System in Question?*

*My translation of the German title

Freiburg's Carl-Schurz-Haus had organized an exchange of views on the topic with three knowledgeable ladies in Americanism: Annika Brockschmidt, Berlin, Prof. Dr. Greta Olson, University of Gießen and Elisabeth Piller, University of Freiburg. 

What are the consequences for American democracy when Trump is elected president in the fall? Here are my notes and personal remarks.

The initial situation:

There is a movement in the USA: Any Republican other than Trump, but it remains pale.

Biden is certainly not fit for a second term, and Vice President Harris is not being noticed. Can she follow in Biden's footsteps if he fails?

On the other hand, Trump is old, too, but he is stronger today than he was in previous elections. His supporters don't regard him as a politician but rather an entertainer. He is a media great. His speeches, in which he often appeals to base instincts, makes sarcastic fun of his competitors, and sometimes derails, are folksy and entertaining. Late show hosts Trumpt calls untalented left-wing socialists may feast on this, but in vain. There is a personality cult around Trump, and yes, he is even loved by some.

He sees himself as the incarnation of the new Republicans. As such, he need not enter the lower realms of the political debate of the primaries with his intra-party rivals.

How can the Democrats counter Trump?

The American economy is thriving, the housing market is doing well, and inflation is falling. But these are no longer catchy issues because facts no longer pull their weight.

Even the assertion that we Americans are being loved again is immediately followed by the counterargument: Yes, we are the money givers; we are being milked. This is why even a successful foreign policy is not an election campaign issue, as it mainly costs money (NATO, Ukraine).

While Europe is calculating what it would mean for America economically if Trump were to cut international ties, this will not sway any Republican voter either.

At a recent election campaign appearance, Biden desperately warned against a possible Trump dictatorship, which the latter already has announced, albeit only for one day following his re-election.

How broad is the genuinely democratic base in the US? 

Should the power of the trade unions be revived?

The Republicans couldn't be more right-wing, while the Democrats cover a spectrum from the center to the far left, but is American society as polarized as the media always play up?

This time, Trump will be well prepared for his rise to power. His new presidential environment will be a hard ideological right. When Biden is no longer president, we Europeans must be strong: The Ukraine war will become European.

What are the fears?

Under Trump, the US will see an expansion of the executive power. The Supreme Court is already conservative; other courts will be reshaped accordingly. Restrictions on voting rights will continue and tighten. My body is mine is no longer guaranteed with anti-abortion legislation and measures against LGBTQ.

This morning, CNN announced the following:

Former President Donald Trump won New Hampshire's Republican primary on Tuesday, defeating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and moving him closer to a rematch with President Joe Biden in the fall. He secured 55% of the state's vote compared to Haley's 43%, according to CNN's polling data. Trump is the first non-incumbent GOP candidate in the modern era to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Haley, though, has vowed to stay in the race and told her supporters that there are "dozens of states left to go." On the Democratic side, President Biden — who is all but guaranteed to be his party's nominee — won the state's primary as a write-in candidate.

Last night, Trump made a giant step in the direction of his second presidency. Will America's democracy survive? 

Full of Angst, one German newspaper wrote: Only American courts or a new Biden presidency can save us from Trump.

*

A Traditional Kale Dinner

Last night, Red Baron participated in a Grünkohlessen at Freiburg‘s well-known restaurant, Großer Meyerhof. The man from Kiel*. Lars Petersen, Freiburg city councilor, district court judge, trombone player, band leader, and his charming wife Meike Voss once initiated the kale dinner. Yesterday, they animated the 14th edition with a quiz on Low German.

*Kiel is the capital of the northernmost German state

The demand for this annual kale dinner is great. However, I was early in my quest for a ticket, while late people had to be placed on a waiting list.

In 2014, I wrote a blog about Brassica oleracea var. sabellica L., claiming that the vegetable from northern Germany was virtually unknown in the south.

In the States, kale was discovered as a superfood in the early 2000s. As usual, American trends sweep across the Atlantic, so over the years and little by little, kale also became known in southern Germany.

When I strolled through the Minster market yesterday morning, I found the following offer:

Freiburg currently has permafrost, so the kale leaves were slightly covered with hoarfrost. They say that before a vegetable may be harvested, it must have frozen—the frost takes the bitterness out of its leaves.

I had my last Grünkohl in Berlin at the end of December in a restaurant, eating all by myself. Here in Freiburg, I sat at a table surrounded by animated, expectant diners.

And the beer did the rest.

The Großer Meyerhof served Brägele as a side dish. Red Baron, preferring Bratkartoffeln (roast potatoes North German style), once blogged about various dishes made from roasted potatoes.

Different types of meat covered the small quantity of Grünkohl. It was not enough, so I asked the waitress for more. New kale was delivered hot and was well received at the table. This meant that a third delivery was necessary so that I could get satisfaction in terms of quantity.

The kitchen and service team deserves big applause, and many thanks to Meike and Lars for their organization and animation.

The Lower German quiz was rather demanding. Who would know that Schinkenbüddel (ham pouches) simply are underpants, Plüschappels (plush apples) are peaches, and Windmölenfleeger (windmill flyer) is a chopper.

Here is the lady who won the quiz and became the kale queen. She waved graciously to our table.

My American readers will be interested in the answer to the quiz question: Who was, at times, the biggest buyer of kale in the US?

Red Baron chose Pizza Hut from the various answers, assuming that the food chain sold a lot of kale smoothies. The answer was correct, but the reason was different. Pizza Hut had bought large quantities of kale simply for decoration.

Look at the photo above. Beautiful Brassica oleracea var. sabellica L.
*

The Endangered Republic

It was a coincidence that a few days after the details about the remigration meeting in Potsdam were revealed, a study day entitled The Endangered Republic was held at the Catholic Academy in Freiburg. The subtitle was Language, Thought, and Politics of the New National Radicals.

The event started at 2 PM. The number of participants was limited, but Red Baron had registered in good time.

The speakers were seated at tables in a horseshoe shape.
This was Red Baron's view.

In his introduction, the meeting host, Josef Markert, pointed out the need to defend right-wing extremists. Although Germany is a defensive democracy, what legal options exist to react against right-wing parties like the AfD?

On January 17.
10,000 Freiburgers demonstrated against the Right in the Square of the Old Synagogue (©BZ)

One hope for German democracy is that the meeting in Potsdam has triggered and is still triggering large demonstrations throughout Germany. One could speak of a grassroots movement.

The first speaker of the study day and book author, Patrick Bahners, drew a connection between biology and history because, for the AfD, the family is the most important ethnic element. It follows that the people are a family in a natural biological context.

At this point, I would have liked to ask the following question: In the past, the AfD was always seen as a protest against the established parties. With a potential voter base of 30% for the AfD, how many of these are protest voters, and how many are völkisch (ethnically) minded? Unfortunately, a discussion with the audience was not planned, but I later had the opportunity to ask Mr. Bahners. He estimated the hardcore at 10%.

The next speaker, Dr. Liane Bednarz, gave a broad, historical overview of the New Right in Germany, the origins of which date back to the 1920s. She said that the much-vaunted enemy from the left did not exist as a potential danger to democracy. She also mentioned the clericals, who, unlike in the US, do not play a significant role in a largely secularized Germany.

The three principles of the New Right are:

1. Anthropolarism: We must fight back against those at the top.

2. Antiliberalism: The enemy is the liberals, i.e., mainstream parties, human rights activists, and all those who advocate equal rights for minorities, open borders, and a free press.

3. Ethnopluralism: There should only be ethnically homogeneous peoples in a heterogeneous world - not the other way around.

It was interesting to hear how the New Right is dealt with in four European countries that have long had right-wing parties.

Matthias Krupa said that a meeting like the one in Potsdam would not draw anyone from the woodwork in France. Due to its past, Germany is a burnt child and, therefore, a latecomer when dealing with the New Right.

Marine Le Pen's Front National has gained votes in every poll since 2000, but the party needs at least 50% of the vote to come to power. Marine is highly cautious about her intentions regarding Europe. When in power, she first wants to ask the French in a referendum whether French law should take precedence over European law again.

Birgit Schönau reported on the situation in Italy. So far, Neo-Fascist Primeminister Giorgia Meloni has behaved in line with the EU. In Italy, the takeover of power took place via the media, which  Silvio Berlusconi had already firmly in control. Since then, the right-wing government has filled most of the key positions in art and culture with its candidates. For Giorgia, the Italian nation is at the forefront. So, it is no longer Italian cuisine but national cuisine.

In contrast, Bartosz Wieliński said the right-wing Polish PIS government had fallen out with the EU. With the media already entirely in the hands of the Right, the government tried to undermine the third power of democracy, the judiciary. This is against the EU charter. Therefore, Brussels withdrew funds from Poland, which led the government to remove some measures.

Then came the general elections to the Sejm on  October 15, where a center-left coalition won the majority. The PIS party was voted out of office. Still, the current transition of power has its challenges, as Polish President Andrzej Duda (originally PIS) is constantly putting obstacles in the way of the governing coalition.

That's an old story. When enemies of democracy are on the government bench, they install their people in the judiciary, in the authorities, in the public media, in the central bank, etc., so it's not so easy to get rid of them.

Natascha Strobl said that Austria's next National Council elections are due in the fall of 2024. However, there have been speculations about possible new elections for months and years amid the numerous crises and political turbulences. 

Cooperation between the governing ÖVP and the Greens is faltering. Both parties are threatened with losses and are far from a joint majority in the polls.

.

Meanwhile, the FPÖ has recovered from multiple scandals since Austria's right-wing and protest voters are forgiving of many things. The "Freedom Party" is back in first place in election polls, so the extreme right may soon have a chance to provide the chancellor. Under those conditions, Natascha predicted a political brutalization in Austria. An uncontrollable mob could dominate the scene.

After more than four hours of intensive listening, Red Baron felt tired. I skipped a scheduled panel discussion later in the evening and went home.

*

Glatteis

What is called black ice in English is what we call smooth ice.

In Freiburg, we had permafrost for about a week, and last night, warm, humid air entered Germany‘s southwest through the Burgundian Gate (Burgundische Pforte). There, it met cold air, so it started to rain during the night. The rain fell on frozen ground and immediately formed black ice.

This morning, the almost empty Minster market was quite unusual (©Anne Grunenberg)

Although the authorities saw this coming and were prepared, not all streets and sidewalks could be salted in time, which is bad for the environment.

  

As usual, Red Baron had breakfast early and was supposed to do his muscle training at Kieser‘s on a Wednesday.

When I looked out of the window, there was absolute silence. Neither a car nor a pedestrian passed by for a quarter of an hour.

While temperatures were 3°C (37 F), they were supposed to climb up to 12°C (54 F) during the day. So Red Baron had another pot of coffee and relaxed until weather conditions allowed him to step out in the street. Kieser would have to wait.

I eventually went downtown after lunch. With sudden double-digit plus temperatures, all snow and ice had disappeared.

*

Remigration

Remigration is the Unwort des Jahres (Unword of the Year) in Germany.

©AfD

Like the US, Europe and particularly Germany are stricken by a poorly controlled influx of migrants. In the Old World, they primarily come from Krisengebieten (crisis regions) in the Middle East or Africa and claim political persecution in their home country. This makes them eligible for political asylum. However, many who enter the European Union on adventurous routes are Wirtschaftsflüchlinge (economic migrants).

The latter should be returned to their home country, but the examination procedures are slow. If a deportation is finally successful, the same person is often found trying to enter the EU a second time.

The refugee situation in Europe is unsatisfactory. Germany is suffering, especially from the number of war refugees from Ukraine, who are never refused but are difficult to bring into work due to the language barrier. So, these refugees have to be financially supported for extended periods and are a financial burden to the Federal Republic.


On Saturday morning last November 25, far-right ideologues, representatives of the AfD, and financially strong supporters of the right-wing scene mingled at Landhaus Adlon in a suburb of Potsdam. The topic of the day: People should be able to be expelled from Germany based on racist criteria - regardless of whether they have a German passport or not.

An Austrian, Martin Sellner, author, leading head of the Neue Rechte  (New Right), and long-standing face of the far-right Identitarian Movement, was the first speaker. He was announced as the man with the master plan where the key word is "remigration."

The whole scenery has a sour aftertaste. Didn't leading representatives of the SS, NSDAP, and several Reich ministries decide on the Final Solution in a villa on Wannsee eight kilometers from here 82 years ago? And was salvation to come from an Austrian again?

Sellner explained: The settlement of foreigners in Germany must be reversed. Three target groups of migrants should leave the country: Asylum seekers, foreigners with the right to stay, and "non-assimilated citizens."

Mainly, the latter group should be directed towards remigration, as these people are the biggest "problem." Irrespective of whether they have a German passport, a distinction must be made between those who should be able to live in Germany unmolested and those to whom this fundamental right should not apply.

That is outrageous. Anyone who wants to drive migrants and citizens out of the country because of their origin and lifestyle is clearly undermining fundamental rights.

Among others, the meeting in Potsdam was attended by AfD party leader Alice Weidel's* personal advisor and the AfD parliamentary group leader in the State of Saxony-Anhalt.

*In the meantime, she fired him

The AfD party leaders immediately countered all these ideas, presenting themselves as a democratic force: "As a constitutional party, the AfD is unconditionally committed to the German nation as the sum of all people who have German citizenship." Immigrants with a German passport are "just as German as the descendants of a family that has lived in Germany for centuries" and: "There are no first or second-class citizens for us."

Thomas Haldenwang, President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, recently warned on television: "Germans are not taking the threat to democracy seriously enough, "the silent majority must wake up."

Last weekend already, the revelation of the "master plan" to expel millions of people from Germany caused an outcry in the country. It incentivized thousands to take to the streets to "defend democracy."

And in Freiburg?

On January 17, Freiburg youth organizations are calling for a rally Gemeinsam gegen Rechtsextremismus (Together against right-wing extremism).

On January 20, the Omas gegen Rechts (Grannies Against the Right) form a human chain against hate.

On January 21, there will be a rally Demokratie schützen. Gegen faschistische Deportationspläne (Protecting democracy. Against fascist deportation plans.)

All events will take place in the Square of the Old Synagogue.

A ban on the populist AfD was called for. However, Red Baron agrees with many politicians and lawyers that banning the AfD is wrong. Even attempts in the direction of a ban could create a martyr role for the AfD.

"Banning a party does not make the supporters of right-wing ideologies disappear," seconded Haldenwang. "MPs would remain in parliament for the time being. Functionaries and sympathizers could join forces to form a new party." Anyway, a right-wing sediment will always remain and could even go underground.

Today, the television showed pictures of young AfD members in a disco club in Bavaria chanting, "Deutschland den Deutschen. Ausländer raus (Germany to the Germans. Foreigners out)."

The situation remains tense.

*

Munch’s Landscape and Life

The title of this blog is my English translation of Lebenslandschaft, the motto in German the curator had given Edvard Munch's paintings exhibited in Potsdam's Barberini Museum. In contrast, the English subtitle is Trembling Earth.

Remember my recent trip to Potsdam? The Edvard Munch exhibition was the highlight of our visit.

Our coach on Alter Markt (Old Market) in front of St. Nicholas Church

The Museum Barberini is just opposite St. Nicholas Church

Before we started the visit to the exhibition, we had an excellent introduction. An art expert explored Munch's inner linking between the landscape and the people living within.

He started with The Yellow Trunk (1912), which lies cut between living spruce trees whose violet bark has a structure resembling cells. Munch thus represents death and life, celebrates the growth of the trees, and hints at the destruction of the Norwegian forests. Still, yellow is Munch's color of life.

©Wikipedia

Let me become chronological. One of Munch's first and most well-known paintings is The Scream (1893), which was not displayed at the exhibition.

The Scream 1895 (Click to enlarge)

Instead, we saw a lithograph with the German title Das Geschrei (The Clamor or The Screaming), which means it is not a scream of a few seconds but rather continuous. Munch writes about an experience that inspired him in German, "Ich fühlte das grosse Geschrei durch die Natur (I felt a tremendous, endless cry go through nature.)"

The figure is part of the agitated landscape. It covers its ears to block out the scream - but it does not succeed: nature's pain seizes it. 

Was Munch inspired by St. Paul's letter to the Romans? We know that the whole creation has been groaning in labor pains until now, and not only the creation, but we ourselves, who have the first fruits of the Spirit, groan inwardly while we wait for adoption, the redemption of our bodies. For in hope, we were saved [Romans 8,22-25:22].

Metabolism (Life and Death) 1896

The scream raises questions about humankind's interaction with nature. On the other side of Munch's spectrum is the sun, the elemental force, energy provider, and the foundation of all life on Earth. Under the sun's influence, new life is fertilized out of a decomposing corpse and growing in the woman's womb.

Metabolism 1916

Munch took up the topic more dramatically in later years. A corps is fertilizing seedlings showing human faces.

Funeral March 1897

And again, the sun. Naked bodies reach for the sky. A mountain of people lifts a coffin towards the light of life.

Fertility 1900

And now some color. Instead with an apple, is the woman tempting the man with her cherries? I leave further interpretations to the imagination of my readers. Throughout his life, Munch had strange relationships with women.

Self-portrait with a model on the beach at Warnemünde 1907

Bathing Men 1908

On the German Baltic Sea beach - still an Eldorado of nude culture today - Munch found many male motifs.

Self-portrait against a Blue Sky 1908

It looks like, in 1908, Edvard was at peace with himself. He stands upright and is surrounded by nature. His yellow vest reflects the sun's rays. However, we learned that Munch was in a fragile psychological state regarding sunlight as a source of health and rejuvenation. What else?

Children in the Woods 1902

Woods, especially Norway's dense and dark ones, were one of Munch's favorite motifs. Just as the woods is a leitmotif in German fairy tales with its dwarves and witches, Munch's forest partners are children, trolls, and lovers.

Towards the Forest 1915

Munch's comment: "A forest is a place where love either can break or become intimacy."

The Fairy-Tale Forest 1929

Let us read the description of the above painting at the museum: Three children enter a bright clearing. Towering spruce trees all around and the dark sky create a claustrophobic atmosphere. The poisonous green color reinforces the eerie feeling, as does the anthroposophical shape of the tree on the right. Its branches resemble the open mouth of a troll that seems to be approaching the children. 

  

Self-Portrait 1940

Edvard Munch is 77. He presents himself as an unhappy, aging man. The world is cold, and snow lies in the garden. Did he anticipate the German invasion of Norway on April 9, or had it already occurred? Munch died in January 1944.

*

Internet Use and Dementia

The result of a study in the US about Internet use and its relation to dementia in older persons, published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, is sold as a surprise. Not so for Red Baron, for he had expected that people actively using their brain while getting older would have a greater chance not to become ament.

Note the word dementia means the decrease of memory and mind quite naturally as you age, while amentia is the complete loss of mental capacity.

Click to enlarge

While studies like the one above are prone to suffer from poor statistics, the results indeed are stunning not only regarding their accuracy of two digital places: Participants who were active internet users had a mere 1.54 percent risk of developing dementia. In contrast, non-users faced a staggering 10.45 percent risk.

Still, there remain many open questions.

Was the cohort biased? Usually, people actively interested in everything under the sun remain so when they get old. Don't these persons develop dementia relatively late in life anyway? They may also have adopted the Internet early and have followed its development.

What does it mean: To be on the Internet? Did the participants in the study just consume the content passively, like television, or did they follow social networks, read newspapers and reports, or even actively participate by writing contributions of their own?

Did the study filter out those people whose brain activity was already stimulated by solving crossword puzzles or reading demanding literature?

Was there a difference between physically active people and couch potatoes?

The authors conclude: Regular internet users experienced approximately half the risk of dementia than non-regular users. Being a regular internet user for longer periods in late adulthood was associated with delayed cognitive impairment, although further evidence is needed on potential adverse effects of excessive usage. Really? An overdosing not only in children but in adults too?

Not only is morale going down the drain: O tempora, o scientia!

As Lagniappe here another "far-reaching" study:

It has been long known that caffeine is linked to physical benefits. Now, read this:

According to a 2023 study of 100 people in the New England Journal of Medicine, the probands walked more on days they drank coffee than on days they didn't. Participants took an average of 1,000 more steps on days when they drank caffeinated coffee than when they didn't.

I shake my head.
*

A Happy New Year?

Trump waves after speaking at the New York Young Republican Club's
 111th annual gala on December 9, 2023 (©Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

Just before Christmas, Andrew Sullivan's Weekly Dish article "The Second Coming Of Donald Trump" outlined "some of the unpleasant, brutal truths we need to face in 2024."

Donald Trump is likely to be the next president of the United States

The far behind Republican runners-up, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, do not attack Trump directly. Are they afraid to lose votes?

Their Trump criticism is played out on secondary battlefields. Haley is calling Trump a liar over his campaign ads that she says misrepresent her record, while DeSantis is complaining that his former political mentor is scared to show up to debate him on television.

In the meantime, Trump couldn't care less heading for his third-straight GOP nomination.

Worse, Trump presently leads Biden in the swing states and the country. Trump's issues — inflation, immigration, crime — move the people.

The multiple lawsuits against him just seem to backfire, shoring up his Republican support and lending credence to his largely spurious but rhetorically effective claim that he is the target of a witch hunt.

The self-proclaimed stable genius said that, if re-elected, he would not only be a dictator for one day but introduce sweeping changes to trade policy. Experts said that could risk alienating allies and igniting a global trade war.

No good outlook, as the Germans, in particular, will again become the scapegoats under Trump II. Although Germany is the only country in the European Union that has recorded a continuous decline in economic output over the last six months, the export surplus with the USA increased last year.

While exports in 2022 were already an enormous two-thirds higher than German purchases in the USA, in the second half of 2023, it became (an extrapolated) 75%, i.e., rising sales with declining sales for Americans in the land of savings and debt brake (Schuldenbremse).

By the way, in the USA, the great free trade dogma is considered dead - across party lines. A new era lies ahead.

All Europeans should dress warmly, i.e., be prepared for a new and higher wave of Trumpism. The future of NATO is in the stars. What does it mean when Trump claims that he can end the Russian-Ukrainian war within a day? We can only guess.

So, let's read Sullivan's second prediction:

Ukraine will never win back its lost territories

Sullivan bases his statement on Obama's remark: "Ukraine will always matter far more to Russia than to Europe or the US, and so, we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for."

Dwindling US military support for Ukraine is quite sure. Will and can Europe fill the gap? This is unlikely and will suit Putin.

The two-state solution in Israel/Palestine is dead

The horrors of the last few months — the depraved, anti-Semitic terror attacks of Hamas on October 7 and the following devastating Israel Defense Forces campaign in response have reshuffled the deck. Israel will not support any serious Palestinian state.

In the middle of all this, Germany's foreign minister, Annalena Bearbock, is helpless as a mediator but eager for international recognition. Not without hope, she coined the fitting motto for the current situation: "I believe that you can only do politics if you have hope."

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) are incompatible with a free society

DEI is a minor issue in Germany, but you never know whether it will wash over the Atlantic as so many things in the past.

Sullivan mentions some successful DEI initiatives implemented in workplaces, including diverse hiring practices, mentorship programs, employee resource groups, DEI training for all levels, flexible holidays, and inclusive social events. We should do all we can to maximize opportunities for everyone, regardless of background, race, sex, etc.

According to Sullivan, DEI replaces individual rights with group rights; it turns every human activity into a zero-sum struggle of identities; it intensifies the obsession with racism; it divides us over what unites us. In places of learning, it places the demands of "social justice" above the pursuit of truth, and so it has not so much enhanced education as replaced it with ideological conformity. 

and

Joe Biden is too old to be re-elected

He is a decent guy who saved us from a second Trump term in 2020. He is now liable to undo that achievement by running again in 2024 and possibly losing badly. The age difference between Trump and Biden is only four years. But these four years make a difference, as Red Baron experienced

What Sullivan forgot and what I like to add here is

Climate change will further accelerate

Earth has finished 2023, the warmest year in the past 174 years and likely the past 125,000. Global temperatures have for months obliterated prior records, and scientists are sifting through evidence to see whether this year might reveal something new about the climate and what we are doing to it.

A series of exceptional climatic events have occurred in southern Europe in particular. As early as February, severe low tides were along the Adriatic coast. Many areas suffered from dryness, drought, and heat well into the summer. While people are still arguing about whether we can limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, this threshold has already been exceeded in many places in the Mediterranean region.

Researchers assume that warming in southern Europe will be 50 percent greater than the global average. This means that in the future, many events, like droughts, forest fires, storms, and floods, will be more frequent and extreme. And we are unprepared.

All over the globe, people simply don't want to understand and accept that a successful fight against climate change cannot be achieved without sacrifices. Instead, they blame their declining living standards on those who govern them. They rather believe in far-right crackpots who promise them a better life.

I repeat: Already in the past, our good Western life was only possible at the expense of others.

An elected Trump could be tempted to use the concentrated military power of the USA to Make America Great Again. In his first term in office, did he not take an interest in Greenland's mineral resources? Denmark indignantly rejected Trump's offer to buy the island. In the future, an aircraft carrier could simply be sent to invade Greenland. Who could stop a rogue US president from doing so?

The prospects for 2024 are gloomy.

*

Potsdam Revisited

Quite early last year, I decided not to sleep into the new year but to stay awake for the transition from 2023 into 2024. A trip offered by the Badische Zeitung to spend New Year's Eve in Potsdam came in handy.

Red Baron has visited Potsdam several times, so it was a déjà vu. But where I usually travel by train, the newspaper only offered a bus trip this time. From Freiburg to Potsdam by bus in eleven hours! That was clearly too much for me.

View from my Berlin hotel room:
An ICE (Intercity-Express) is leaving the Hauptbahnhof (Central Station)
for its final destination, Berlin Ostbahnhof.

So I opted for the train to Berlin a day early to meet up with a friend and then take the S-Bahn from Berlin Central Station to Potsdam the following morning.

Kale dish from right to left with Bratkartoffeln (German fries), Pinkel, Mettwurst, and Kassler.

In the evening, I decided to eat Grünkohl at Buschbeck's in Berlin. A Rode Grütt (a red fruit dessert originally from Denmark) rounded my meal off. Kale is rarely served and then only poorly in southern Germany.

In the early afternoon of the following day, I arrived at the hotel in Potsdam and took a walk in the city. The weather was cold, but the sun shone as I strolled through the Christmas market.

For noms, English is the lingua franca

While the Christmas market ended on December 24 in Freiburg, East Germans are not so strict. Forty-five years of an atheist regime have, apart from a few particularly faithful people, transformed East Germany into a missionary country.

I ended up stopping off at one of the many pubs.

Avid readers of my blogs know that Red Baron is a Berliner Weiße (wheat beer) freak, always with a shot of green woodruff syrup. When I am in the Berlin region, I never miss an opportunity.

So I was all the more surprised to find that, besides the Weiße grün and rot (raspberry syrup), there is now also the Weiße gelb (apricot syrup). I tried it only once; it was awful.

Where there was still a large hole on the site of the destroyed Potsdam Synagogue during my last visit, the façade of the new synagogue, still half hidden behind a construction fence, is impressive.

After a 12-hour drive, the bus passengers arrived at the hotel late in the evening, where we enjoyed dinner together.

The following morning, the bus awaited the group to take us on a city tour. Our guide, Mr. Müller, excelled at fast-talking, covering 200 years of Prussian history in one sentence.

We passed the Russian colony. The houses were built in 1816 for Russian soldiers who had helped fight Napoleon in Western Europe. They and their families did not feel like returning to Mother Russia and preferred to stay in Prussia in houses that conveyed a home feeling.

An axis of vision in Potsdam’s New Garden shows in the middle ground a pyramid covering
the ice cellar for the Marble Palace which sticks out its tower in the background.

We came to the New Garden, where Cecilienhof Palace is located. There, in 1945, the Big Three discussed the fate of the defeated Germany. 

We couldn't get into the exhibition, so I'll put my readers off with earlier pictures from summer days.

Dream factory

In the afternoon, we visited the Potsdam Film Museum housed in the old stables of the Stadtschloss. 

His seat

Here, I was particularly interested in the beginning of German film history, the UFA, e.g., the film Die Nibelungen, directed by Fritz Lang.

The original Nibelungen set is 100 years old.

Working in black and white

The "silent" actors

Invitation to the world premiere of Die Nibelungen at the UFA-Palace on February 14, 1924.

A night watchman led the group through Potsdam around several blocks in the evening. 

Most impressive, in 1735, King Frederik William I (the soldier king) privileged this pharmacy to supply the royal court.

    

The following morning, the group visited an Edward Munch exhibition at the Museum Barberini. Red Baron will write a particular blog about the outstanding painter.

The evening saw us at the Rococo Court Theater in the New Palace, located in the Sans Souci Park.

The performance was Der Schauspieldirektor (The Theater Director), a two-act musical comedy by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.

The singing actors and the members of the orchestra enjoyed their well-deserved applause.

Old Fritz (Frederick the Great) created it all.

Mr. Müller guided us through the park to Sans Souci Castle the following St. Silvester morning. In the winter, the surroundings look sad; trees are leafless, all fountains are without water, and the statues decorating the park are encased. Here are some summer pictures I took in August 2012.

Still, with the tele lens of my iPhone 15 Plus Max, I had a new perspective of the famous mill behind Sans Souci Castle.

And the potatoes were there on Frederick the Great's tomb, honoring him for his forced introduction of this staple food in Prussia.

Click on the photos to enlarge.

A final look from Sans Souci Hill toward the "Ruin Hill" crowned by a Norman tower and artificial, classical ruins.

In the afternoon, everybody prepared for the long evening. We had a buffet dinner on a ship where no fireworks were allowed. 

Red Baron made it to Luisenplatz, where our hotel was located, just in time to experience the turn of the year. And then I had the fireworks of my life. The square was a "hot spot." I was amid soaring rockets and exploding firecrackers. It was breathtaking. Judge for yourself:

The night ended at the hotel bar, where - in the absence of champagne - I toasted with a glass of sparkling wine with a good friend of many years who had coincidentally booked the same trip. We drank to a "better" New Year. 

 On New Year's morning, the group set off on its long trip from Potsdam to Freiburg at 10 a.m. I was in awe of our bus driver, who managed to get us back home in exactly 11 hours. 

The only advantage of this long journey was that I was able to finish the 1000-page biography of Christoph Martin Wieland, the founder of modern German literature. Jan Philipp Reemtsma, a master of the German language, wrote a book in which he not only pulls Wieland out of oblivion but highlights Christoph Martin's services to German literature with great expertise. I will discuss the highlights of this excellent book in a future blog. 

With this first blog in 2024, I wish all my readers not a good New Year but a "better" one.

*