Too Little, too Late

Two world leaders met
and the summit labored and brought forth a mouse.

Looking for help (©BZ/Haitzinger)

We read in the press that the US and China agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future, even though only 41% of Americans recognize that the observed climate change is man-made. Some hail the Beijing agreement as a significant breakthrough, but many view it with mixed feelings.

The positive aspect of the mutual understanding is that China, being the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide with nearly 10 billion tons per year, no longer insists on its status as a developing country with a per capita emission of only 7.1 tons of carbon dioxide per year compared to 16.4 for the US and 9.7 for Germany. It seems China eventually recognized its responsibility to its citizens* when Chairman Xi announced plans to level off fossil fuel consumption by 2030.
*We all have seen those pictures of massive air pollution in the streets of Beijing

Total emissions and emissions per capita of carbon dioxide in 2012 (©BZ/dpa)

The main reason for Xi's decision is that by 2030 China will have little left to burn.

China's yearly consumption of coal (©Der Spiegel)

Fossil fuel reserves of our planet and
coal reserves of selected countries (©Der Spiegel)

Red Baron did a back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the two graphical presentations above.

China's coal consumption leveling off in 2030 as promised by Chairman Xi.

China's coal reserves amounted to 110 billion tons in 2014. Extrapolating yearly consumption, the rate will increase from 3.6 billion tons annually in 2012 to 4.2 billion tons in 2030. In that year, the country will be left with a reserve for another 10 years if it uses coal at a constant rate of 4.2 billion tons per annum*. So it will be high time not only to level off but to peak coal consumption in China, as the sketch indicates. So what some consider a significant breakthrough in China's climate policy is just born out of necessity.
*A scientific MIT-Tsinghua University study also concluded that China's coal consumption will peak 17% higher in 2030 compared to the year 2014

At the same time, President Obama announced that the US would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 26% below 2005 levels by 2025. When he made the promise, did he consider the new political constellation in Washington? I understand the coal lobby is strong among Republicans, with many simply denying man-made climate change*. Indeed, America's coal reserves are much larger than China's.

*cf. Jim Inhofe's book published in 2012: The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future 

In addition, fracking has unlocked "new" fossil fuels. Currently, the States consume cheap fossil energy at a high rate, with per capita emissions of 16.4 tons of carbon dioxide per year, as mentioned before. China's present value of 7.1 will possibly stay below 8 by 2030, considering the scenario developed above and relatively moderate population growth.

And my country, green Germany? The goal is a 40% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions below 1998 levels by 2020. Only 32% will be reached with current measures, and drastic action is needed. The fight is on to shut down lignite-fired power stations.

Still the biggest polluter: Kraftwerke (fossil power stations)
(©Wikipedia/Robert A. Rhode))

The Minister of Environment claims that only by shutting down a couple of those old polluters can the goal of 40% by 2020 be met, while the Minister of Economy and Energy states: You cannot shut down nuclear power* and fossil power at the same time. A delicate fact is that both ministers belong to the Social Democratic Party.
*Nine nuclear power stations are already shut down in Germany, with the rest to follow until 2040.

Red Baron's gloomy guess is that the world will miss its goal of limiting the temperature rise to two degrees centigrade by 2100. Why are we more concerned with climate change and speak little about our planet's limited resources?

So even if we lose the climate battle, we still need renewable energy. It is part of intergenerational justice that we create the energy sources of tomorrow for our descendants.

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