Sunday, February 20, 2022

Going Back in History

During the negotiations on German unification in 1991, the future scope of NATO became relevant. Russian President Initially, President Mikhail Gorbachev demanded a non-aligned Germany, "A unified Germany must not join NATO, and that's that."

In the end, the two-plus-four* negotiations ended in a compromise. Germany remained a NATO member, but no Western soldiers were to be present in the former GDR, at least for a specific time.
*The two German states plus the four victorious powers

At every available opportunity, President Putin declares that the West betrayed Russia with NATO's eastward expansion. He claims that at the time of Germany's reunification, the Soviet Union had been assured that this would not happen.

In 1991 there was broad consensus among Western allies that NATO should not advance east any further regardless of whether such a guarantee was clearly stated or put in writing. A document from the British National Archives now evidences this. The paper discovered by American political scientist Joshua Shifrinson refers to a meeting of the political directors of the foreign ministries of the United States, Great Britain, France, and Germany in Bonn on March 6, 1991.

The German representative, Jürgen Chrobog, wrote:

©Der Spiegel
According to a memo, U.S. Representative Raymond Seitz agreed with Chrobog, "We have made it clear to the Soviet Union - at two-plus-four as well as other talks - that we will take no advantage of the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe ... NATO is not to expand eastward, either formally or informally."

It means that in 1991, the Americans probably also saw the situation as Putin does today. However, the West did not reach a binding agreement with the Kremlin that precluded NATO's expansion eastward under international law. Many politicians and officials involved on both sides instead acted in good faith.

Did you note that Bonn's representative Chrobog confused Elbe and Oder in his written statement? Was it simply a mistake, or did he mean to exclude the former GDR's territory between the two rivers? After all, according to the Two-plus-Four Treaty, a united Germany was to join NATO, which extended it to the Oder. German reunification was NATO's first eastward expansion but not the last one.
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