A Nightmare Turned Reality

We Europeans are stunned, some are shocked, and Germany is doubly so. No sooner had we realized that Trump had won the election our coalition government collapsed. But that is a different story.

Back to America. So why this victory? Again, it's the economy, stupid. Many voters' economic situation and concerns about the financial future tipped the scales. It was high inflation, especially in the year before last, an increase in the price of services, and a rise in rent, especially in medium-sized and large cities.

What about "democracy, constitutional rights, and bedrock freedoms," Kamala Harris had written on her banner? "Abstract truths mattered less, voters said, than tangible issues."

This Brechtian "First comes the food and then the morals (Erst kommt das Fressen und dann die Moral)" weighed heavier than Trump's lies, his contempt for women, his venom, and his agitation against political opponents. Voters set aside Trump's mental confusion, his threats to take revenge on political opponents, to tailor democratic institutions to his authoritarian ideas, or to deport migrants.

Last night's Stammtisch of the Freiburg-Madison-Gesellschaft was dedicated to the outcome of the US election. Due to the highly topical subject, it was well attended. In particular, many AYF students found their way to the Greiffenegg-Schlössle. 

On the right, Dietmar Ostermann is highly concentrated
while FMG President Toni Schlegel listens attentively

Dietmar Ostermann, political editor of the local Badische Zeitung and long-time USA correspondent for German-language newspapers, gave a keynote speech followed by a discussion.

He began with a factual introduction that avoided speculating about the consequences of Trump's victory. At the moment, we can only guess what the new administration will bring us. Unlike the first Trump administration, a team of loyal vassals is ready to take up key positions in the new government.

This is my blog, so I will offer some of my own thoughts here, however exaggerated or wrong they may be.

While the discussion at the Greiffenegg-Schlössle initially centered on missing American military aid for Ukraine, but Trump promised the end of the Ukraine war within 48 hours, I moved the discussion to a topic that could shake the world.

With his motto, "America first," Trump has ushered in Monroe Doctrine 2.0, something that had already been foreshadowed under previous administrations and culminated in the dramatic withdrawal from Afghanistan: The USA is abandoning its role as the world's sheriff.

This means that more small warlords might raise their heads in the future, as is already happening in South Sudan, with cruel consequences for the civilian population being crushed between the fronts.

Existing conflicts, such as in the Middle East, continue unabated. The state of Israel is waging a bloody struggle for its existence and is not bothered by either US or international efforts to achieve a ceasefire.

A recession threatens the global economy. Isolating America by introducing tariffs (Trump's favorite word) will make importing foreign products into the USA more difficult.

This means that export-oriented countries such as China and Germany will find it more difficult to export to the USA and, subsequently, will produce fewer goods. This will exacerbate the existing economic recession in both countries.

Following the possible closure of Volkswagen plants in Germany, social unrest will probably be limited. Still, it is feared that radical parties on the right and left will gain ground, which could lead to the centrist democratic parties no longer having a majority for forming governments. These "Weimar conditions" are currently observed in the federal state of Saxony.

We can only speculate whether there will be social unrest in China, mainly due to rising youth unemployment.

Trump's knowledge of economics is at least as modest as mine. When imported products become more expensive due to high import tariffs, he will be unable to keep his promise to lower prices in the USA. On the contrary, inflation will be fueled, and the American people as a whole will not be better off than now.

Nowadays, the promise of better living conditions for one part of the world can only be fulfilled at the expense of others, as economic growth is ruled out due to the suffering environment. Trade wars are inevitable.

Afterthoughts

On last night's Late Show, Stephen Colbert began his analysis of the election result with the word shit. He was not at all happy about the prospect of having plenty of material for his political jokes over the next four years. Instead, he ended his monologue by introducing his pessimistic sticker:

The Democrats lost, but on the positive side, Trump's election is a victory for democracy. He won not only the majority of electoral votes but also the majority of popular votes. Therefore, on January 20, 2025, we will see a peaceful transfer of power, not a new Storm on the Capitol.

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