The Never-Ending Kashmir Conflict

When, after World War II, the European states reluctantly granted independence to their African colonies, the people awoke within borders drawn by the colonial powers in the 19th century to demarcate their interests. These borders cut through entire ethnic groups and often forced Muslim and Christian populations into unnatural state structures. As expected, numerous border conflicts in Africa have not ended to this day or are flaring up again.

I still remember well the bloody Biafra conflict from 1967 to 1970, in which the predominantly Christian southeastern provinces of Nigeria declared independence as the Republic of Biafra. Although it was a struggle for power, oil, and mineral resources, the civil war was stylized into a religious one in which the Muslim north raided the predominantly Catholic south. Images of massacred women and starving children flickered across television screens in Western living rooms and triggered a wave of solidarity among all Christian churches around the world.

The Swiss arms manufacturer Oerlikon-Bührle supplied weapons to this war zone: anti-aircraft and ground-support guns that were technically outdated but still fully functional and lethal. These guns were initially ordered and paid for by Nazi Germany during the Second World War, but could not be delivered before the war ended.

The Nigerian federal army was desperate for arms to fight the secessionist Biafra, and Oerlikon-Bührle saw an opportunity to get rid of these old WWII-era stocks, selling the guns twice.

It was a scandal, and Switzerland was shaken. It took them years to come to terms with this affair.

But I digress. The topic of this blog is the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan, presented at the Museumsgesellschaft by Dr. Arndt Michael, an expert in Asian politics.

He gave a comprehensive historical introduction, but I will shorten it to focus on India's independence from British rule on August 14/15, 1947, and its aftermath. 

After World War II, two political groups — the Indian National Congress and the Muslim League — were deeply divided over whether India should remain united or be partitioned.

The British government sent Lord Louis Mountbatten, the last British Viceroy of India, to negotiate a quick and workable solution.

 
According to his plan, British India was divided into two dominions: Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan, with minorities of the other religion in each. This partition laid the ground for future conflicts, particularly as the two provinces of Punjab and Bengal, with mixed Hindu and Muslim populations, would be split between India and Pakistan.

So far so bad, but the situation was worsened because of the Kashmir province.

Maharaja Hari Singh in 1946 (©AP)

The princely state of Kashmir was ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh, a Hindu, over a majority Muslim population (about 75%). Under the Mountbatten Plan, he had to choose between joining India or Pakistan, based on geography and his people's wishes.

The Maharaja tried to remain independent, signing "Standstill Agreements" with both dominions to maintain trade and communication while he delayed his decision.

Some people hated to wait. So, in October 1947, tribal militias from Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province, backed by some elements in Pakistan, invaded Kashmir to force its accession to Pakistan.

 Without going into detail about this First Indo-Pakistani War, it lasted until January 1949 when the UN eventually established a ceasefire.

As a result, Kashmir was divided. India controlled about two-thirds of the territory, including Jammu, the Kashmir Valley, and Ladakh. Pakistan controlled the rest, known as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit–Baltistan. The dividing line became known as the Line of Control (LoC).

Ongoing military tension and political instability led to two more open wars over Kashmir in 1965 and 1999. They were, however, short-lived, since, as Dr. Michael informed us, the Americans quickly reprimanded their ally, Pakistan. The US would not tolerate conflicts in the region because of its military activities in Afghanistan, where it needed Pakistan as an army base for Operation Enduring Freedom.

Terrorist attacks followed in subsequent years, culminating in the 2008 terrorist attack on the Taj Mahal Hotel in India by Islamists. The wars and attacks have claimed around 50,000 lives to date, including civilians, soldiers, and terrorists.

The latest open conflict to date between India and Pakistan took place from May 7 to May 10 of this year.

Pakistan, as a so-called failed state, is on China's drip. Still, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan boasts of fighting to the end in the Kashmir conflict and thinks it is time to teach India a lesson. The Chinese support the Muslim country because they have a great interest in securing access to the port of Gwadar in Pakistan as part of their Silk Road project.

India, on the other hand, now the most populous country on earth, is stretching its limbs. According to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in office since 2014, India is a great role model for growth, progress, and peace, even though corruption, economic injustice, and injustice towards women and minorities are on the rise. India's economic boom is driven primarily by imports of cheap Russian oil. In return, India supplies Russia with military equipment. Modi is pursuing exclusively national interests. What Russia is doing in Eastern Europe does not affect India. The country is benefiting from the war in Ukraine.

Because energy and labor are cheap in India, more and more Western companies (Apple!) are moving manufacturing from China to India.

The four-day war in May 1925 started with an air battle in which 125 Indian and Pakistani fighter jets remaining within their national air spaces engaged in dogfights with long-range missiles. The Indians lost six of their most modern aircraft. It looks like modern Chinese technology was behind these shootdowns. In the following days, the fighting continued with drone attacks and artillery duels at the LoC.   

 Kashmir has no oil or mineral resources, and a high unemployment rate of 23%. This mainly affects younger people, who also have poor career prospects. The country has beautiful landscapes haunted by Indian honeymooners. 

 India is doing everything it can to get Kashmir under its control. The imprisonment of undesirable politicians and human rights violations are commonplace. Gerrymandering favors candidates of the pro-Indian party.

 

©Konkan Railway Corporation Limited/Wikipedia

In 2023, the imposing Chenab Bridge connecting Kashmir with the rest of the Indian railway network was opened. With 359 meters above the river, it is the highest railway bridge in the world.

 
The dispute over Kashmir is an unsolvable conflict between two nuclear powers that are supported by China and Russia, respectively. So the May skirmish looks like a proxy war. 

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