It’s All Exponential

Prof. Emanuel Deutschmann had made the long journey from Flensburg to Freiburg to present and sell his book "Die Exponential Gesellschaft, Vom Ende des Wachstums zur Stabilisierung der Welt" (The Exponential Society: From the End of Growth to the Stabilization of the World).

One of humanity's most significant weaknesses is its inability to understand exponential functions (Al Bartlett, 1976).

It is undoubtedly the most important function in mathematics (Walter Rudin, 1970).

Has its relevance in sociology been underestimated until now?

The lecture hall was well-filled. Prof. Deutschmann had divided his talk into three theses.

1. Today's society is characterized by exaggerated exponential trends that cause fundamental problems. 

2. These problems make stabilization a central issue of social order.

3. This constellation gives rise to new social conflicts.

In a double logarithmic scale, exponential functions are presented by a straight line.

Indeed, the economy and global production have grown exponentially with the industrial age. 

As early as 1848, Marx and Engels warned of "a continuous revolution in production, which will cause an uninterrupted upheaval of all social conditions."

 Here are some graphs:

The money supply in various countries is growing exponentially with a doubling time of 8.5 years.

The consumption of various building materials follows an exponential trend.

An exponential function represents a straight line in double logarithmic representation.

The number of scientific publications and the production of microprocessors increase exponentially over time, whereas AI grows even faster.

World tourism, the number of students studying abroad, and road traffic follow the trend.

Despite many international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, their levels continue to rise. Due to thawing permafrost, methane emissions have increased sharply in recent years.

Here is the verdict. Measured global warming and sea levels continue to rise exponentially.

An ever-rising global population is accelerating climate change.

All curves have a universal mechanism in common: More brings more, or growth is the basis for further growth in a positive feedback loop.

To stabilize the world economy, Justin Connolly "had a dream" of a donut-capped economic limit, i.e., a humanity living in a safe and just space with a regenerative and distributive economy.

In our world, two extreme attitudes clash: further expansion into space as Mother Earth's resources near exhaustion, with the opposing view that there is no planet B.

Prof. Deutschmann was clear: Ad astra expansionism a la Musk is a castle in the air, and metaverse expansionism a la Zuckerberg is a pipe dream.

The balance of power between the two extreme camps is uneven and one-sided.

The stagnant German economy must grow again, while the US breaks every record on GROWTH.

Since long, Red Baron has believed that the global economic pie has reached its maximum size and that growth is only possible when the pie is sliced differently, with one nation's gain being another nation's loss.

Whether a green economy will drive economic growth remains a subject of debate. The Camino Real is the decoupling of resource use from economic activity.

However, here is a caveat: the rebound effect known as the Jevons Paradox. Technological progress that enables more efficient use of a resource ultimately leads to increased use of that resource rather than to its reduction.

Here are Prof Deutschmann's conclusions:

The task: Crafting stabilizing utopias.

The goal: A good life for all within planetary boundaries, what Ernst Bloch called: "Optimism with a black ribbon."

Lagniappe: 

The other night, Red Baron attended the annual meeting of the Association Supporting the Freiburg Documentation Center on National Socialism. The president presented the growth in membership as a bar chart, with an exponential function superimposed. When will all Freiburg citizens be members?

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