Monday, March 14, 2016

Göttinnendämmerung?

Alea iacta est. Yesterday, on Super Sunday, Germany moved to the right in three state elections. The ruling parties in Berlin, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), are the losers, while the populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is the winner. Does this mean twilight for goddess Angela?

©BZ
In Baden-Württemberg's state election, the CDU lost 12% of its previous votes and the SPD more than 10%. The winner in the Ländle is Ministerpräsident (governor) Winfried Kretschmann and his Green Party, which gained 6%. They passed the Christian Democrats and became the strongest party in our state parliament with 30.3% of the votes. What is worrying is that starting from scratch, the right-leaning AfD got 15.1% right away.

Neither did last-minute efforts in Freiburg by left-wingers, nor did Christian movements combined help stop the Alternative for Germany ...

Rather solidaryan than solid Aryan (©Freiburger Wochenbericht)
... nor did law-and-order slogans by the CDU help turn the tide:

Enforce the police. End Green and Red mistrust against our cobs.
Therefore vote for CDU.
More than 15% of the voters in Baden-Württemberg punished Merkel's policy of opening the German borders to refugees. Refugees came too many, too rapidly, and, what a German citizen will never tolerate, uncontrolled. It is even estimated that up to 20% of those who entered Germany last summer and fall never registered or disappeared following their registrations. On the other hand, some people registered several times; therefore, an accurate count is impossible. Our authorities only slowly got the situation under control.

European solidarity? Nope. According to many a head of government in the European Union, those refugees are a German problem, for it was Angela who lured an increasing number of refugees to flee the Middle East with her Wir schaffen das (We will make it). Will the lost state elections be Angela's twilight in Berlin?

The Greens lost more than 2/3 of their previous votes in the state elections of Rhineland-Palatinate and about 1/3 in Saxony-Anhalt. Nowadays, all parties in Germany have a green touch. Why bother still with the Greens, whose peak values were following the Fukushima nuclear disaster? On the other hand, personality plays a decisive role in local elections, and many voters in the Ländle like Winfried. The Green father of the state now has to look for another, or other, coalition partner(s) to support a government led by him.

With all established parties saying they won't enter a coalition with the AfD, it will be difficult to form stable state governments in all three states. Now the real coalition fiddling will start. They are easily named after countries referring to the colors of their flag. I wrote about the Jamaica coalition (black, green, yellow, i.e., Christian Democrats, the Greens, and the Liberals will govern together).

Presently, excluding light blue, other color coalitions are possible, e.g., a Kenia coalition (black, red, green). The most perfidious combination that would not respect the will of the voters (Wählerwillen) in Baden-Württemberg would be a Deutschland-Koalition (black, red, yellow) proposed by loser Guido Wolf (CDU), banning winner Kretschmann from the opposition benches. These days nothing is excluded.

Let us hope the many votes for the AfD are "protest votes" and therefore ephemeral. A good example is the populist Party of Law and Order Offensive, more commonly known as the Schill Party, in the state of Hamburg. In 2001, the right-wing party entered the city parliament with 19.4% of the vote, but four years later, it fell to a mere 0.4%.
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