Taliban Rule

Nato governments are shocked about the Taliban blitz and their takeover of Afghanistan.

In the aftermath of the debacle, Late Show host Stephen Colbert showed a video clip taken on July 8 with President Biden stating in front of journalists, "The likelihood there is going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely."

Stephen's reaction is, "Wow, this is the most inaccurate prediction of a president since Abraham Lincoln said:"

©CBS/Stephen Colbert

Well, I am neither a prophet nor a forecaster, but here is what I wrote on July 9:

 
It was clear to me from the beginning: The semi-democratic Afghan government stands on feet of clay. Once the alliance of 36 western nations leaves the country to the present rulers, the Taliban will take over in no time. Now it is just a question of a few weeks* until they have the full command …

and …

To sum up the failure: The Afghan army of an impressive 300,000 men and women will and cannot resist the Taliban fighters, and all educational efforts will soon be nullified.
*I am counting six weeks

Wow, 823 people flown out on a U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster
(©US Air Force)

Only 180 people seated on a Bundesluftwaffe Airbus A400M
(©Marc Tessensohn/Bundeswehr)

If possible, western countries frantically try to evacuate their countrymen/women and their local Afghan helpers. The latter are fearing for their lives despite Taliban assurances of a grand amnesty for collaborators.

It is easy to say nobody understood Afghanistan, qualifying this statement by Afterward, one is always wiser. I just read; Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, now 90, who pulled the Soviets out of Afghanistan, says the U.S. campaign was doomed from the start. Before the Russians failed, the British were forced to leave the country marked by tribal structures and small territories held by warlords. The central government in Kabul controls just the capital and its surroundings.

Why did western secret services not see and report that Afghanistan's strong army of 300,000 existed partly on paper and the rest had no fighting morale? 

A Bundeswehr veteran who served three missions in Afghanistan explains, "Many men did not join the Afghan army voluntarily; they needed the pay to survive. They did not want to die for the government in Kabul."

The situation reminds me of a pacifist movement in France at the outbreak of the Second World War with its slogan, "Mourir pour Dantzig?" referring to the French assistant treaty with Poland when this country was invaded by the German army. 

The Afghani troops had the assignment to fight for a somewhat corrupt central government, while the Taliban had a strong theocratic goal: creating an Islamic caliphate.

The withdrawal of the United States meant a significant blow to the morale of the Afghan army. They no longer had U.S. air and logistical support; they lost combat power and felt abandoned.

Initially, the NATO mission that started 20 years ago aimed to eradicate the terrorist group Al-Qaeda who had found shelter in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. From the beginning, Germany followed its NATO allies providing the second-largest troop contingent. They concentrated on training Afghani troops and building an infrastructure for girl schooling. So the present debacle is a particular blow for the Bundeswehr veterans, "The Afghanistan mission was pointless and in vain." Some former soldiers claim, "Germany lives its Vietnam."

As NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, "We went in together, we adjusted our presence together, and now we leave together after close consultations among all 30 allies." The last part of his statement is a whitewash.

Why does Germany send troops to Mali? The aim is, in particular, to stabilize Mali and the Sahel. Sounds familiar.

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