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| Trump waves after speaking at the New York Young Republican Club's 111th annual gala on December 9, 2023 (©Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images) |
Just before Christmas,
Andrew Sullivan's Weekly Dish article "The Second Coming Of Donald Trump"
outlined "some of the unpleasant, brutal truths we need to face in 2024."
Donald Trump is likely to be the next president of the United States
The far behind Republican runners-up, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, do not attack Trump directly. Are they afraid to lose votes?
Their Trump criticism is played out on secondary battlefields. Haley is calling Trump a liar over his campaign ads that she says misrepresent her record, while DeSantis is complaining that his former political mentor is scared to show up to debate him on television.
In the meantime, Trump couldn't care less heading for his third-straight GOP nomination.
Worse, Trump presently leads Biden in the swing states and the country. Trump's issues — inflation, immigration, crime — move the people.
The multiple lawsuits against him just seem to backfire, shoring up his Republican support and lending credence to his largely spurious but rhetorically effective claim that he is the target of a witch hunt.
The self-proclaimed stable genius said that, if re-elected, he would not only be a dictator for one day but introduce sweeping changes to trade policy. Experts said that could risk alienating allies and igniting a global trade war.
No good outlook, as the Germans, in particular, will again become the scapegoats under Trump II. Although Germany is the only country in the European Union that has recorded a continuous decline in economic output over the last six months, the export surplus with the USA increased last year.
While exports in 2022 were already an enormous two-thirds higher than German purchases in the USA, in the second half of 2023, it became (an extrapolated) 75%, i.e., rising sales with declining sales for Americans in the land of savings and debt brake (Schuldenbremse).
By the way, in the USA, the great free trade dogma is considered dead - across party lines. A new era lies ahead.
All Europeans should dress warmly, i.e., be prepared for a new and higher wave of Trumpism. The future of NATO is in the stars. What does it mean when Trump claims that he can end the Russian-Ukrainian war within a day? We can only guess.
So, let's read Sullivan's second prediction:
Ukraine will never win back its lost territories
Sullivan bases his statement on Obama's remark: "Ukraine will always matter far more to Russia than to Europe or the US, and so, we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for."
Dwindling US military support for Ukraine is quite sure. Will and can Europe fill the gap? This is unlikely and will suit Putin.
The two-state solution in Israel/Palestine is dead
The horrors of the last few months — the depraved, anti-Semitic terror attacks of Hamas on October 7 and the following devastating Israel Defense Forces campaign in response have reshuffled the deck. Israel will not support any serious Palestinian state.
In the middle of all this, Germany's foreign minister, Annalena Bearbock, is helpless as a mediator but eager for international recognition. Not without hope, she coined the fitting motto for the current situation: "I believe that you can only do politics if you have hope."
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) are incompatible with a free society
DEI is a minor issue in Germany, but you never know whether it will wash over the Atlantic as so many things in the past.
Sullivan mentions some successful DEI initiatives implemented in workplaces, including diverse hiring practices, mentorship programs, employee resource groups, DEI training for all levels, flexible holidays, and inclusive social events. We should do all we can to maximize opportunities for everyone, regardless of background, race, sex, etc.
According to Sullivan, DEI replaces individual rights with group rights; it turns every human activity into a zero-sum struggle of identities; it intensifies the obsession with racism; it divides us over what unites us. In places of learning, it places the demands of "social justice" above the pursuit of truth, and so it has not so much enhanced education as replaced it with ideological conformity.
and
Joe Biden is too old to be re-elected
He is a decent guy who saved us from a second Trump term in 2020. He is now liable to undo that achievement by running again in 2024 and possibly losing badly. The age difference between Trump and Biden is only four years. But these four years make a difference, as Red Baron experienced
What Sullivan forgot and what I like to add here is
Climate change will further accelerate
Earth has finished 2023, the warmest year in the past 174 years and likely the past 125,000. Global temperatures have for months obliterated prior records, and scientists are sifting through evidence to see whether this year might reveal something new about the climate and what we are doing to it.
A series of exceptional climatic events have occurred in southern Europe in particular. As early as February, severe low tides were along the Adriatic coast. Many areas suffered from dryness, drought, and heat well into the summer. While people are still arguing about whether we can limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, this threshold has already been exceeded in many places in the Mediterranean region.
Researchers assume that warming in southern Europe will be 50 percent greater than the global average. This means that in the future, many events, like droughts, forest fires, storms, and floods, will be more frequent and extreme. And we are unprepared.
All over the globe, people simply don't want to understand and accept that a successful fight against climate change cannot be achieved without sacrifices. Instead, they blame their declining living standards on those who govern them. They rather believe in far-right crackpots who promise them a better life.
I repeat: Already in the past, our good Western life was only possible at the expense of others.
An elected Trump could be tempted to use the concentrated military power of the USA to Make America Great Again. In his first term in office, did he not take an interest in Greenland's mineral resources? Denmark indignantly rejected Trump's offer to buy the island. In the future, an aircraft carrier could simply be sent to invade Greenland. Who could stop a rogue US president from doing so?
The prospects for 2024 are gloomy.
Joe Biden is too old to be re-elected
He is a decent guy who saved us from a second Trump term in 2020. He is now liable to undo that achievement by running again in 2024 and possibly losing badly. The age difference between Trump and Biden is only four years. But these four years make a difference, as Red Baron experienced
What Sullivan forgot and what I like to add here is
Climate change will further accelerate
Earth has finished 2023, the warmest year in the past 174 years and likely the past 125,000. Global temperatures have for months obliterated prior records, and scientists are sifting through evidence to see whether this year might reveal something new about the climate and what we are doing to it.
A series of exceptional climatic events have occurred in southern Europe in particular. As early as February, severe low tides were along the Adriatic coast. Many areas suffered from dryness, drought, and heat well into the summer. While people are still arguing about whether we can limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, this threshold has already been exceeded in many places in the Mediterranean region.
Researchers assume that warming in southern Europe will be 50 percent greater than the global average. This means that in the future, many events, like droughts, forest fires, storms, and floods, will be more frequent and extreme. And we are unprepared.
All over the globe, people simply don't want to understand and accept that a successful fight against climate change cannot be achieved without sacrifices. Instead, they blame their declining living standards on those who govern them. They rather believe in far-right crackpots who promise them a better life.
I repeat: Already in the past, our good Western life was only possible at the expense of others.
An elected Trump could be tempted to use the concentrated military power of the USA to Make America Great Again. In his first term in office, did he not take an interest in Greenland's mineral resources? Denmark indignantly rejected Trump's offer to buy the island. In the future, an aircraft carrier could simply be sent to invade Greenland. Who could stop a rogue US president from doing so?
The prospects for 2024 are gloomy.
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