Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Stellt sich die Systemfrage?

In a series of talks on Democracy as a Test of Courage, last night, Red Baron followed an online discussion on Is the Democratic System in Question?*
*My translation of the German title

Freiburg's Carl-Schurz-Haus had organized an exchange of views on the topic with three knowledgeable ladies in Americanism: Annika Brockschmidt, Berlin, Prof. Dr. Greta Olson, University of Gießen and Elisabeth Piller, University of Freiburg. 

What are the consequences for American democracy when Trump is elected president in the fall? Here are my notes and personal remarks.

The initial situation:

There is a movement in the USA: Any Republican other than Trump, but it remains pale.

Biden is certainly not fit for a second term, and Vice President Harris is not being noticed. Can she follow in Biden's footsteps if he fails?

On the other hand, Trump is old, too, but he is stronger today than he was in previous elections. His supporters don't regard him as a politician but rather an entertainer. He is a media great. His speeches, in which he often appeals to base instincts, makes sarcastic fun of his competitors, and sometimes derails, are folksy and entertaining. Late show hosts Trumpt calls untalented left-wing socialists may feast on this, but in vain. There is a personality cult around Trump, and yes, he is even loved by some.

He sees himself as the incarnation of the new Republicans. As such, he need not enter the lower realms of the political debate of the primaries with his intra-party rivals.

How can the Democrats counter Trump?

The American economy is thriving, the housing market is doing well, and inflation is falling. But these are no longer catchy issues because facts no longer pull their weight.

Even the assertion that we Americans are being loved again is immediately followed by the counterargument: Yes, we are the money givers; we are being milked. This is why even a successful foreign policy is not an election campaign issue, as it mainly costs money (NATO, Ukraine).

While Europe is calculating what it would mean for America economically if Trump were to cut international ties, this will not sway any Republican voter either.

At a recent election campaign appearance, Biden desperately warned against a possible Trump dictatorship, which the latter already has announced, albeit only for one day following his re-election.

How broad is the genuinely democratic base in the US? 

Should the power of the trade unions be revived?

The Republicans couldn't be more right-wing, while the Democrats cover a spectrum from the center to the far left, but is American society as polarized as the media always play up?

This time, Trump will be well prepared for his rise to power. His new presidential environment will be a hard ideological right. When Biden is no longer president, we Europeans must be strong: The Ukraine war will become European.

What are the fears?

Under Trump, the US will see an expansion of the executive power. The Supreme Court is already conservative; other courts will be reshaped accordingly. Restrictions on voting rights will continue and tighten. My body is mine is no longer guaranteed with anti-abortion legislation and measures against LGBTQ.

This morning, CNN announced the following:

Former President Donald Trump won New Hampshire's Republican primary on Tuesday, defeating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and moving him closer to a rematch with President Joe Biden in the fall. He secured 55% of the state's vote compared to Haley's 43%, according to CNN's polling data. Trump is the first non-incumbent GOP candidate in the modern era to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Haley, though, has vowed to stay in the race and told her supporters that there are "dozens of states left to go." On the Democratic side, President Biden — who is all but guaranteed to be his party's nominee — won the state's primary as a write-in candidate.

Last night, Trump made a giant step in the direction of his second presidency. Will America's democracy survive? 

Full of Angst, one German newspaper wrote: Only American courts or a new Biden presidency can save us from Trump.
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