The Triell

Presidential debates in the States are duels between candidates of the Democrats and Republicans. In Germany, the party landscape is more diverse and colorful. Instead of blue and red, we have more colors, i.e., more parties: black (CDU, Christian Democrats, conservative), red (SPD, Social Democrats, moderate left), green (Grüne, Greens, ecologists), yellow (FDP, Free Democrats, liberals), blue (AfD, Alternative for Germany, right-wing), and amber (Die Linke, The Left, left-wing).

The three parties likely to become the strongest in the new Bundestag (parliament) as the result of the upcoming federal elections on September 26 have sent candidates into the race for chancellor knowing that elections are decided mainly by personalities.

The Triell at the Berlin Adlerhof studios (©WIWO)

So last Sunday, Armin Laschet (CDU), Annalena Baerbock (The Greens), and Olaf Scholz (SPD) met on national television for a debate in a "triell" constellation.

The result of a poll taken following the debate.
Who is the winner? (©RTLaktuell)

Observers called the debate's outcome a stalemate, while a poll following the "triell" saw a clear winner. Germans don't like abrupt changes. 

Kanzlerdämmerung. Chancellor Merkel last week at the Bundestag in Berlin.
After 16 years, Goodbye, Angela, many will miss you (©Filip Singer/EPA).

Vice-chancellor and solid minister of finance Olaf Scholz placed his experience in government on the scales, playing the Merkel card, and preaching continuity with subtle changes. This attitude resonates with the German voter.

©CDU

The ruling Christian Democrats are on the defensive, but instead of Konrad Adenauer's successful slogan of 1957, "No experiments," ...

©dpa

... they get the red socks of 1994 from behind the oven painting a left-wing coalition on the wall, including Die Linke. However, this option does not frighten the voter with Olaf Scholz at the helm.

No party will gain more than 50% of the seats in the next Bundestag, so coalitions must be formed. Here is the play of colors for possible constellations:

Projected number of seats in the future Bundestag
considering recent results of polls (©Der Spiegel)

Some possible coalitions carry funny names like Kenia, Jamaica, or Germany but have nothing to do with the respective country. The combination of party colors simply mirrors the colors of the individual flags. Mind you, Kenia is set; no one has called it the Afghanistan coalition so far.

As you may see from the graph, several coalitions have a majority of seats possible.

©mdr

Some color combinations form state governments, e.g., a Kenia coalition in Saxonia ...

©NABU

... or a Jamaica coalition in Schleswig-Holstein.

©CDU

Last March, voters in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate confirmed a successful traffic light coalition. Too many people did not like the CDU pulling the plug.

The Grand Coalition has governed Germany since 2013 and is likely to have no majority in the new Bundestag. It needs at least three parties to form a government.

The protagonists of CDU, SPD, and FDP (©Die Welt)

So a novelty would be a "Germany coalition" between CDU, SPD, and FDP. 

Will there be a significant shift in party preferences until September 26? I doubt.

P.S.: September 1. From the New York Times article, It's Election Season in Germany. No Charisma, Please!: 

 Less than a month before the vote on September 26, the field is being led by two male suit-wearing career politicians — one balding, one bespectacled, both over 60 — who represent the parties that have governed the country jointly for the better part of two decades.

Olaf Scholz, center left, of the Social Democrats, and Armin Laschet, center,
of the Christian Democratic Union [both on occasion, not suit-wearing
are visiting flood-stricken regions in North Rhine-Westphalia
where Laschet is governor]. Their race has become a contest
 to see who can best channel Chancellor Angela Merkel's aura
of stability and calm (©Marius Becker)

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