Variant of Interest

Presently the Covid-19 Delta variant of concern (VOC) determines the Corona infections around the globe.

The scale of WHO Bedrohungslagen opened at the top by Stephen Colbert
(©Stephen Colbert/CBS)

The other day the World Health Organisation (WHO) identified a new, the Mu variant, as a variant of interest (VOI). With its multiple spike mutations, will this virus become Corona's dominant spreader?

For my German readers "Zwischen Aufstrich und Ausbreitung"
of epidemics (©Stephen Colbert/CBS)

Here is what Dr. Fauci said regarding the present situation in the States, "There are isolates of the Mu variant in this country. The thing that is telling us it isn't an immediate issue right now is that the Delta variant continues to be profoundly dominant in this country. More than 99% of the isolates in this country are Delta. So, Delta seems to be pushing out all the other variants."

Mu is the twelfth letter in the 24-letter Greek alphabet, two letters short of the Latin alphabet used in English. With more mutants of the Coronavirus being identified, it is evident that sooner or later, we will run out of Greek letters.

When this happens, the Cyrillic alphabet could come in handy with its abundant 29 letters, not counting the modifying hard and soft signs. Mind you, some of the Cyrillic letters are of Greek or Latin origin. Will we ever need the umlauted and the accented letters to name new Covid-19 variants? I digress.

Four waves of Corona infections in Germany (©ntv)

The 4th Corona wave is somewhat frightening. Looking at the progress in vaccinations in various countries, you will note that vaccination rates of around 60% are far from any herd immunity with the aggressive Delta variant. However, Denmark recently lifted all Corona restrictions with its 73,1%.

Vaccination progress for selected countries (©RTL)

Countries that started their vaccinations early, like Israel, the UK, and the States, are not better off than Germany, a late starter. With 61.3% of its population fully vaccinated, Germany has passed the US with 52,3%. There is vaccine fatigue in all countries, so the present numbers increase only slowly with time.

Seven day Corona incidences for unvaccinated
and fully vaccinated people in a few German States (©ntv)

And then there are breakthrough infections. Fully vaccinated persons fall ill with Corona, although the progression of the disease is mild, showing that the vaccination is effective.

The course of the pandemic is profoundly different in Germany in 2020 and 2021, as illustrated in the following graphics by Deutsche Telekom©:

After Germany met the initial wave with a lockdown, the Corona incidence stayed low during the summer of 2020 (orange curve) and started to climb with the cold season. In 2021 a similar trend was expected, but the Delta variant made that the Corona incidence began already to rise at the end of July, climbing since then. The rate has now reached a value above 83 infections per 100,000 inhabitants. Where is the effect of the vaccination?

We see the effect of vaccination in the above graphic comparing the number of deaths due to Corona in 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red). This year the number dropped as the number of vaccinations increased. In addition, the death rate will remain low in 2021, although the number of infected people is increasing. Many older people died from Corona last year. This cohort is now nearly fully inoculated, and the number of deaths due to the Delta variant in younger population segments is low.

Finally, the following graphic shows the number of people in intensive care again for the years 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red). This year's load on the hospitals is still low. So yesterday, parliament - in its last session before the deputies adjourned to fight for their seats in the upcoming federal election - passed an amendment to the Infection Protection Act, replacing the corona incidence rate with a hospitalization rate. This rate indicates how many Corona patients per 100,000 inhabitants were admitted to hospitals in the last seven days. Last Tuesday, that figure was 1.69 nationwide, having little meaning. So instead, in the future, each State will define its limiting numbers according to the number of still-empty hospital beds. Presently the State Ordinances are being adjusted.

Berlin, which had a traffic light for additional actions to be taken when the Corona rate in the city-state passed limiting values, converted its traffic light to an indicator of hospitalization incidence. At a value of 4, the light turns yellow, meaning that the Senate (the state government) needs to talk; at a value of 8 (red), there is a need for action, i.e., for new or further Corona restrictions.

Baden-Württemberg's draft of a new Corona Ordinance stipulates that if the hospitalization incidence passes 8, unvaccinated people would only be allowed access with a negative PCR test to some public areas, such as restaurants and cultural and sporting events.

A second alert level applies if the hospitalization incidence is 12. At this value, 2G becomes the rule in the land. Unvaccinated people would no longer have access to certain areas and must reduce their contacts to a minimum.

The planned rigid 2G rule in Baden-Württemberg differs from that in Hamburg. Here organizers and landlords can decide whether to admit only vaccinated and recovered people under an option model to their premises.

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