New Revelations on Climate Change

It is not me who will present new revelations on climate change. Instead, these are made by those who still deny that climate change is man-made. Here are a few examples:

Tweet on November 6, 2012.

Mr. Walker, are we really doing the best we can? Let's consider the rise in global temperature.

Warnings already in 1988

In 2007, I gave a talk at the Freiburg-Madison-Gesellschaft titled Gaia schlägt zurück. The Revenge of Gaia was the title of a book by James Lovelock. I also used the 2007 Report of the IPCC*, Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis, to support my talk. The following graphic is drawn from there.
*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The IPCC's 2007 projection shows a 0.47 °C rise in global temperature between 2000 and 2020. In that short period, the increase is nearly independent of various scenarios of CO₂ emissions assumed by the IPCC. Thirteen years later, we measured temperature data.

©Wikipedia

The measured global temperature rise between 2000 and 2020 is 0.48 °C, so the projected one is within the margin of error. Does this mean there is no problem?

In 2017, the measured temperature was higher than the long-term mean temperature averaged from 1880 to  2017 in every place.

Mauna Loa in Hawai is not perturbed by civilizing influences
and used as the earth's reference point.

What is most disturbing is the increase in the global CO₂ concentration over the years without any sign of leveling off. Where are the sources of greenhouse gases?

©Wikipedia

Over recent years, decreasing carbon dioxide emissions in the States and the EU have been more than compensated by fossil fuel burning in China and India. In particular, international shipping and aviation increased greenhouse gas emissions.

As for Germany, it follows the European trend of a slight decrease in CO₂ emissions. In particular, households acquired more energy-efficient machines and LED lighting. Although nuclear power is phased out, energy production became less CO₂-prone since inefficient lignite-burning power stations were shut down. At the same time, the contribution of wind and solar power to the energy mix increased. Only transport is identified as the Achilles heel, with more people driving SUVs.

So, in Germany, we are far from our CO₂ emission goals. The decrease must become steeper to meet the Paris target figure in 2050.

Deniers of man-made global warming try to find other explanations for the apparent climate change. Here are slides taken from an ARD presentation on television showing how natural and man-made factors may influence the observed temperature rise:

Observed temperature increase with time vs. solar activity

Influence of the earth's orbital parameter on temperature rise

The impact of volcanic activity

Human-made ozone layer

Deforestations

Smog and aerosols in the atmosphere have a cooling effect.

Greenhouse gases have the most significant effect on rising temperatures.

All natural and human-made factors combined give a "perfect" fit to the measured data.

One of the consequences of rising temperatures is the loss of ice in glaciers and polar regions.

According to the IPCC, the projected sea-level rise due to melting ice varies from 2 mm/year with climate protection measures to 17 mm/year without CPM.

The measured rate of sea-level increase is actually 3.3 mm/year.

Pictures of the "land underwater" doomsday scenario are well known.

Last May, in a talk about climate change in south-west Germany, Dr. Andreas Becker of the German Weather Service showed the following slides explaining new weather phenomena:

Due to global warming, lower temperature gradients are measured between polar regions and temperate zones.

In the summer of 2018

This causes frequent jet stream anomalies, resulting in stable, stationary weather conditions. Thus, heatwaves and periods of drought change with steady rain and inundations.

In Germany, from 1881 to 2018, the increase in sunshine duration from April to June corresponds to a rise in temperature. No long-term deficit in precipitation is observed for the same period, although 2018 was a particular year.

From April to October 2018, a significant anomaly (circled) is noticed in a combination of the lowest precipitation and the highest temperature compared to 1881 to 2018.

Here are the hydrological previsions for Germany. The water balance is the difference between precipitations and evaporation. Due to higher evaporation at higher temperatures, the region around our capital, Berlin, is likely to become a desert.

©BZ

People in Freiburg are reminded that summers are getting hotter. The Menetekel is not written on the wall but painted on a streetcar with colored stripes.

Eventually, all efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C* will fail if the population's growth continues. "Our blue planet is too small for 10 billion people", as State Senator Scott Wagner formulated, "We have more people. You know, humans have warm bodies. So is heat coming off?" Yes, it is around 100 watts per person.
*IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C  on October 8, 2018 

*