Mr. Walker, are we really doing the best we can? Let us look at the global temperature rise.
|Warnings already in 1988|
*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
In the 2007 projection of the IPCC, the global temperature rise between 2000 and 2020 would be 0.47 degrees. In that short period, the increase is nearly independent of various scenarios of CO2 emissions assumed by the IPCC. Thirteen years later, we have measured temperature data.
Well, in 2017, there was no place in the world where the measured temperature was not higher than the long-term mean temperature averaged over the years 1880 to 2017.
|Mauna Loa on Hawai is not perturbed by civilizing influences |
and used as the earth's reference point.
As for Germany, it follows the European trend of a slight decrease in CO2 emissions. In particular, households acquired more energy-efficient machines and LED lighting. Although nuclear power is phased out, energy production became less CO2 prone since inefficient lignite burning power stations were shut down. At the same time, the contribution of wind and solar power to the energy mix increased. Only transport is identified as the Achilles heel with more and more people driving SUVs.
So in Germany, we are far from our goals on CO2 emission. To meet the Paris target figure in 2050, the gradient of the decrease must become steeper.
Deniers of man-made global warming try to find other explanations for the apparent climate change. Here are slides are taken from an ARD presentation on television showing how natural and man-made factors may influence the observed temperature rise:
|Observed temperature increase with time vs. solar activity|
|Influence of the earth's orbital parameter on temperature rise|
|The influence of volcanic activity|
|Human-made ozone layer|
|Smog and aerosols in the atmosphere have a cooling effect.|
|Greenhouse gases have the most significant effect on temperature rise.|
|All factors, natural and human-made combined, give a "perfect" fit to the measured data|
One of the consequences of temperature rise is the loss of ice at glaciers and the polar regions.
According to the IPCC, the projected sea-level rise due to melting ice varies from 2 mm/year with climate protection measures to 17 mm/year without CPM.
The measured rate of sea-level increase is actually 3.3 mm/year.
Pictures of the "land underwater" doomsday scenario are well known.
Last May in a talk about climate change in south-west Germany Dr. Andreas Becker of the German Weather Service showed the following slides explaining new weather phenomena:
Due to global warming, lower temperature gradients are measured between polar regions and temperate zones.
|The summer of 2018|
In Germany, for the years 1881 to 2018, the increase in sunshine duration from April to June corresponds to a rise in temperature. For the same period, no long-term deficit in precipitation is observed, although 2018 was a particular year.
Taking the months from April to October 2018, a significant anomaly (circled) is noticed in a combination of the lowest precipitation and the highest temperature in comparison with the years 1881 to 2018.
Here are the hydrological previsions for Germany. The water balance is the difference between precipitations and evaporation. Due to higher evaporation at higher temperatures, the region around the capital of Berlin is likely to become a desert.
Eventually, all efforts to limit the rise of the global temperature to 1.5 degrees* will fail if the growth of the population continues. Our blue planet is too small for 10 billion people as State Senator Scott Wagner formulated, "We have more people. You know, humans have warm bodies. So is heat coming off?" Yes, it is around 100 watts per person.
*IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C on October 8, 2018