Tuesday, February 4, 2020

New Revelations on Climate Change

It is not me who will present new revelations on climate change. They are instead made by those who still deny that climate change is man-made. Here are a few examples:


Tweet on November 6, 2012.

Mr. Walker, are we really doing the best we can? Let us look at the global temperature rise.

Warnings already in 1988
In 2007 I gave a talk at the Freiburg-Madison-Gesellschaft titled Gaia schlägt zurück. The Revenge of Gaia was the title of a book by James Lovelock. To support my talk, I also used the 2007 Report of the IPCC*, Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. The following graphic is drawn from there.
*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


In the 2007 projection of the IPCC, the global temperature rise between 2000 and 2020 would be 0.47 degrees. In that short period, the increase is nearly independent of various scenarios of CO2 emissions assumed by the IPCC. Thirteen years later, we have measured temperature data.

©Wikipedia
The measured global temperature rise between 2000 and 2020 is 0.48 degrees, so within the margin of error to the projected one. Does this mean there is no problem?


Well, in 2017, there was no place in the world where the measured temperature was not higher than the long-term mean temperature averaged over the years 1880 to  2017.

Mauna Loa on Hawai is not perturbed by civilizing influences
and used as the earth's reference point.
What is most disturbing is the increase in the global CO2 concentration over the years without any sign of leveling off. Where are the sources of greenhouse gases?

©Wikipedia
Decreasing carbon dioxide emissions in the States and the EU over recent years are more than compensated by fossil fuel burning China and India. Note, in particular, the increase in greenhouse gas emission by international shipping and aviation.


As for Germany, it follows the European trend of a slight decrease in CO2 emissions. In particular, households acquired more energy-efficient machines and LED lighting. Although nuclear power is phased out, energy production became less CO2 prone since inefficient lignite burning power stations were shut down. At the same time, the contribution of wind and solar power to the energy mix increased. Only transport is identified as the Achilles heel with more and more people driving SUVs.


So in Germany, we are far from our goals on CO2 emission. To meet the Paris target figure in 2050, the gradient of the decrease must become steeper.

Deniers of man-made global warming try to find other explanations for the apparent climate change. Here are slides are taken from an ARD presentation on television showing how natural and man-made factors may influence the observed temperature rise:

Observed temperature increase with time vs. solar activity
Influence of the earth's orbital parameter on temperature rise
The influence of volcanic activity
Human-made ozone layer
Deforestations
Smog and aerosols in the atmosphere have a cooling effect.

Greenhouse gases have the most significant effect on temperature rise.
All factors, natural and human-made combined, give a "perfect" fit to the measured data

One of the consequences of temperature rise is the loss of ice at glaciers and the polar regions.


According to the IPCC, the projected sea-level rise due to melting ice varies from 2 mm/year with climate protection measures to 17 mm/year without CPM.


The measured rate of sea-level increase is actually 3.3 mm/year.


Pictures of the "land underwater" doomsday scenario are well known.


Last May in a talk about climate change in south-west Germany Dr. Andreas Becker of the German Weather Service showed the following slides explaining new weather phenomena:


Due to global warming, lower temperature gradients are measured between polar regions and temperate zones.

The summer of 2018
This causes jet stream anomalies that frequently result in stable, stationary weather conditions. So heatwaves and periods of droughts change with steady rain and inundations.


In Germany, for the years 1881 to 2018, the increase in sunshine duration from April to June corresponds to a rise in temperature. For the same period, no long-term deficit in precipitation is observed, although 2018 was a particular year.


Taking the months from April to October 2018, a significant anomaly (circled) is noticed in a combination of the lowest precipitation and the highest temperature in comparison with the years 1881 to 2018.


Here are the hydrological previsions for Germany. The water balance is the difference between precipitations and evaporation. Due to higher evaporation at higher temperatures, the region around the capital of Berlin is likely to become a desert.

©BZ
People in Freiburg are reminded about the summers becoming hotter. The Menetekel is not written on the wall but painted on a streetcar in the form of colored stripes.


Eventually, all efforts to limit the rise of the global temperature to 1.5 degrees* will fail if the growth of the population continues. Our blue planet is too small for 10 billion people as State Senator Scott Wagner formulated, "We have more people. You know, humans have warm bodies. So is heat coming off?" Yes, it is around 100 watts per person.
*IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C  on October 8, 2018

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